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Total: Rising refining margins in Europe won’t last due to surplus capacity

By ANGELINA RASCOUET
Bloomberg
Add Europe’s biggest fuels producer to the list of companies saying the region’s refining boom will be short lived.
The surge in European refining margins, which jumped by the most in 4 years last quarter, cannot be sustained because the region still has surplus processing capacity, Total said Tuesday. The French oil producer joins refiners including Gunvor Group and Eni who predicted this month that the favorable market won’t last.
Strong gasoline demand and a high level of maintenance at refineries in the US increased margins, Total said. Eni, whose first-quarter refining margins jumped sixfold, said Wednesday that lower demand, overcapacity, and increasing competitive pressure from imports will be “headwinds” for companies in the region.
“European refiners are benefiting from a double whammy of lower crude oil prices and strong demand,” said Hamza Khan, an Amsterdam-based senior commodity strategist at ING Bank. “They will see a tough operatingenvironment in the long run as new capacity comes online in the Middle East, the US increases product exports and the price of crude recovers.”
Margins for refineries in northwest Europe rose more than sevenfold to $47.10/ton in the first quarter from $6.60 a year earlier, according to data compiled by Total. That’s the biggest increase since at least 2011. The profit that can be made from refining gasoline from Brent crude in Europe increased to the highest level in two years in March, according to data from PVM Oil Associates.
Statoil, Vitol Group, Mol, Neste Oil, Eni, Gunvor and Total all said this month that the resurgence in Europe’s refining margins won’t be sustained. These companies control 24% of refining capacity in the region, according to estimates from London-based consultant FGE.
Total’s European Refining Margin Indicator represents the difference between the wholesale value of the oil products a sophisticated refinery in northwest Europe is able to produce and the cost of crude it processes, not the company’s actual margins, according to its website.

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